Cuomo Surges as Mamdani’s Lead Narrows to Single Digits in Final Stretch of NYC Mayoral Race

Just days before New Yorkers head to the polls, the race for mayor has turned into a nail-biter.
A new AtlasIntel survey released Saturday shows independent candidate Andrew Cuomo cutting Democrat Zohran Mamdani’s once-comfortable lead to just 6.6 points, his best position since midsummer.

According to the poll, Mamdani leads with 40.6 percent, while Cuomo trails closely at 34 percent. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, meanwhile, has risen to 24.1 percent—his highest mark since July.
The survey, conducted among likely general-election voters, carries a margin of error of ±3 points.

The findings mark a striking turnaround for Cuomo, the former governor running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary earlier this year. In September, most surveys showed him lagging far behind. Now, as early voting continues and Election Day approaches, the former governor’s campaign insists momentum is shifting.

A Closing Gap

“The gap is closing fast—we can feel it on the ground everywhere from the Bronx to Staten Island,” Cuomo told reporters Saturday while campaigning in Brownsville, Brooklyn.
“At this rate, we win the race. Keep going strong,” he added, brushing off suggestions that he remains too far behind.

Later that afternoon, he expanded on his confidence. “Six points in this election is nothing,” he said. “New Yorkers have taken the time to learn what’s real and what’s not. They’ve looked closely at the promises being made and what a mayor can actually deliver.”

The comments come as Cuomo intensifies his pitch to moderate Democrats, independents, and even some Republican voters who may be wary of Mamdani’s progressive platform. He has sought to frame himself as the experienced hand capable of steering a complicated city through turbulent economic and social challenges.

Questioning Feasibility of Campaign Promises

Cuomo, known for his policy expertise and combative style, has zeroed in on Mamdani’s proposals—among them city-funded grocery stores, free bus service, and a rent freeze—as unrealistic.

“What has happened is that in the primary, Zohran got away with his slogans—‘freeze the rent,’ ‘free buses,’ ‘free food,’ and a smile,” Cuomo said. “But now people have found out what he’s about. There is no free food, there are no free buses, and a mayor can’t raise statewide corporate taxes and dedicate them to the city. That can’t happen.”

Cuomo’s campaign surrogates have echoed that message, arguing that while Mamdani’s rhetoric has energized young voters, many residents are now gravitating toward what they see as more practical leadership.

Analysts Weigh the Trend

Andrei Roman, chief executive of AtlasIntel, said the poll results illustrate how quickly the dynamics of this year’s race have evolved.

“Cuomo’s past controversies as governor have limited his broader appeal, but Mamdani’s far-left proposals and polarizing stances have motivated voters across the city,” Roman said.
“From being seen as uninspiring to becoming a figure some voters fear will go too far—that’s a significant shift,” he added.

Roman described Cuomo’s path to victory as dependent on consolidating moderate Democrats who backed him during the primary, while also attracting independents and a slice of Sliwa’s conservative base through what he called “strategic voting.”

Sliwa’s Strongest Showing Yet

For Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, the AtlasIntel poll offered his most encouraging numbers to date. His 24.1 percent share represents a small but meaningful gain compared with a July HarrisX survey that placed him at 22 percent.

Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, has continued his trademark grassroots campaigning—riding subways, visiting outer-borough neighborhoods, and emphasizing public safety and quality-of-life issues.

While polls suggest he faces an uphill battle in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans six to one, his presence in the race is now viewed as pivotal. The AtlasIntel findings show that if Sliwa were not running, Cuomo would lead Mamdani 50 percent to 42 percent, underscoring the potential impact of vote-splitting on the final outcome.

Contradicting Earlier Surveys

The latest numbers differ sharply from several polls released earlier in the week that depicted Mamdani holding a double-digit advantage.

A Fox News survey on Thursday put the Democratic nominee at 47 percent, with Cuomo at 31 percent and Sliwa at 15 percent.
An Emerson College poll released the same day gave Mamdani an even larger lead—50 to 25 percent—with Sliwa at 21 percent.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average compiled from those results, Mamdani still holds a broader 14.5-point advantage citywide. Yet the AtlasIntel snapshot, coming closest to Election Day, hints at volatility beneath the surface.

Early Voting Surge

Adding to the uncertainty is a surge in early voting. Nearly half a million New Yorkers have already cast ballots, according to the City Board of Elections—far higher turnout than during the 2021 mayoral race.

Election analysts note that early voters often reflect highly motivated segments of the electorate, but predicting which candidate benefits most remains difficult. Campaigns on all sides are mobilizing their field operations to capture late-deciding voters and ensure strong showings in key boroughs such as Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island.

Mamdani’s Response: Confidence Without Complacency

At a community event in Harlem on Saturday hosted by Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network, Mamdani addressed questions about the tightening race with visible calm.

“I’m not worried at all,” he said. “I continue to be confident—but I never let that confidence become complacency.”

Mamdani, a state assemblyman from Queens, has relied heavily on an energetic volunteer base, with thousands of young organizers canvassing city neighborhoods and college campuses. His team insists that the campaign’s grassroots infrastructure, built during the Democratic primary, remains unmatched.

Cuomo’s Closing Argument

Cuomo spent the weekend traversing Brooklyn neighborhoods, including Brighton Beach and Brownsville, pressing his message of pragmatic leadership. In Brighton Beach, he told supporters there was “no way” Sliwa could win and urged voters to back him as the viable alternative to Mamdani.

“Curtis can only make Zohran Mamdani win,” Cuomo said. “Every vote that stays divided helps someone who can’t deliver what New Yorkers really need.”

His campaign’s final-week advertisements emphasize competence and steadiness, invoking his years managing crises as governor—an appeal aimed at New Yorkers weary of political experiments.

A City Watching Closely

The 2025 mayoral race has become one of the most unpredictable contests in recent city history. What began as a seemingly straightforward matchup between an ascendant progressive and a well-known former governor has morphed into a three-way struggle shaped by personality, ideology, and fatigue with partisan extremes.

Political observers say the outcome could hinge on turnout among older voters, who have shown up in large numbers during early voting and may lean toward Cuomo, versus younger voters, a demographic that powered Mamdani’s primary win.

“Momentum is real,” said Dr. Matthew Hale, a political scientist at Seton Hall University. “But late momentum doesn’t always translate to votes when early ballots are already banked. The big question is how much of the electorate is still in play.”

Campaign Strategies in the Final Days

Both major campaigns are now flooding the airwaves and doorsteps.
Mamdani’s team has focused on borough-based rallies, highlighting themes of affordability, housing, and climate action.
Cuomo’s operation, meanwhile, is running a citywide bus tour branded “Experience Matters,” featuring surrogates including former state officials and community leaders who praise his crisis-management record.

Sliwa continues to press his public-safety message, hoping to consolidate Republican voters and peel off independents frustrated by both major contenders.

The tone has grown sharper but remains largely issue-based—a departure from earlier New York City mayoral campaigns known for personal attacks.

What’s at Stake

With the mayor’s office, control of billions in city funding, and the post-pandemic direction of the nation’s largest metropolis on the line, Tuesday’s outcome will carry implications far beyond New York.

If Mamdani wins, it would mark the most progressive shift in City Hall leadership in decades. A Cuomo victory, on the other hand, would represent a comeback of remarkable proportions for a figure once presumed sidelined from politics.
Sliwa, while unlikely to overtake both rivals, has already reasserted the Republican presence in a city long dominated by Democrats.

Final Countdown

As election weekend unfolds, each campaign is invoking its closing message:

For Mamdani, it is hope and generational change.

For Cuomo, experience and realism.

For Sliwa, safety and tradition.

The AtlasIntel poll suggests that no candidate can afford complacency. With the margin between first and second place shrinking to within the survey’s error range, New Yorkers may be heading toward an election night far closer—and far more suspenseful—than anyone expected.

Whatever the outcome, one truth is already clear: after months of rallies, debates, and relentless headlines, the battle for City Hall has become a referendum not just on policies, but on the city’s identity itself—a test of whether New York’s future will be defined by idealism, pragmatism, or protest.