New York City Mayoral Race Narrows as Cuomo Cuts Mamdani’s Lead in Half

The race for New York City mayor has taken a dramatic turn in its final days. With just over a week remaining before Election Day and early voting already seeing record participation, the once-comfortable lead of Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has been sharply reduced. A new poll from Suffolk University Boston shows independent candidate Andrew Cuomo narrowing the gap to 10 points, cutting Mamdani’s September advantage in half.

The poll, conducted among 500 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 4.4%, places Mamdani ahead with 44%, Cuomo at 34%, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa in third with 11%. About 7% of respondents remain undecided.

The numbers mark a significant shift in the race, which had appeared to favor Mamdani decisively just a month earlier. Analysts point to several factors behind Cuomo’s late surge, including his recent endorsement by Mayor Eric Adams, an aggressive campaign focused on leadership experience, and a sharp uptick in early turnout among older voters—a demographic that could prove pivotal.

A Late-Stage Comeback for Cuomo

The latest poll comes after a turbulent few weeks on the campaign trail. Cuomo, who entered the race as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, has positioned himself as a steady and pragmatic alternative to the progressive state assemblyman.

Campaign strategists say the former governor’s recent momentum stems from his appeal to moderate Democrats and disaffected centrists. The endorsement from Mayor Adams last week further amplified his message of experience and stability.

“Today’s Suffolk University poll shows exactly what we’re seeing on the ground: This is a two-man race, momentum is on our side,” said Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo’s campaign. “In just a month, Andrew Cuomo has cut Mamdani’s lead in half, and the early vote is going our way.”

While Mamdani still leads, the tightening numbers suggest that the race could become competitive down the stretch—especially if voter turnout patterns continue to shift.

Pollster: ‘Curtis Sliwa Could Decide the Outcome’

According to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, one of the most intriguing findings in the poll involves Curtis Sliwa’s supporters. With 11% of the vote, Sliwa’s backers represent a critical bloc that could shape the final outcome.

“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” Paleologos said. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Sen. Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36% to 2%.”

That dynamic could create a potential opening for Cuomo in the final week. If even a fraction of Sliwa’s voters migrate to his camp—especially those motivated by economic or public safety issues—the independent candidate could further close the gap.

However, with Mamdani maintaining a double-digit lead, the margin remains significant. Political observers caution that it would take an unusually strong late surge for Cuomo to overcome his deficit.

Early Voting Surges — and Older Voters Dominate

The new poll coincides with a remarkable surge in early voting turnout across New York City. More than 223,000 voters have already cast their ballots within the first three days—far exceeding the pace of the last mayoral election four years ago.

Analysts note a distinct shift in the composition of those early voters. Unlike the Democratic primary, which was driven heavily by younger and first-time voters, this round appears dominated by older residents.

Data indicates that voters over 50 are turning out in far greater numbers than those under 35—a trend that could reshape the race’s trajectory.

Former governor David Paterson, who once supported Mamdani’s campaign before switching his endorsement to Cuomo, described the shift as potentially decisive. “That is clearly advantageous to the former governor,” Paterson said. “The senior vote, which had been dwindling, is coming back almost with logarithmic proportions, and if it stays that way, he should win by three to five points.”

Cuomo has echoed that sentiment, describing the turnout as a reflection of public mood and frustration.

“There’s anger in this city. There’s fear in this city. There’s frustration in this city. It’s all percolating. You can feel it out there,” Cuomo said during a recent campaign stop. “I feel very good because New Yorkers, at the end of the day, they want a mayor who can do the job.”

Mamdani’s Team: ‘Confident, Not Complacent’

Despite the tightening race, Mamdani’s campaign remains confident. His team emphasizes that their strategy—grounded in neighborhood organizing, youth outreach, and volunteer energy—has been consistent from the start.

“I think we should always celebrate when more New Yorkers are going to the polls,” Mamdani said in a statement. “I continue to be confident in our campaign as well as in our outreach to voters above the age of 55. But I will not allow myself to become complacent.”

The Queens-based assemblyman, who rose to prominence as a champion of affordable housing and community-based economic development, continues to rely on his grassroots army of volunteers, estimated at more than 20,000 citywide.

Campaign insiders say that while Cuomo’s late momentum is real, Mamdani’s ground game remains unmatched. “We’ve built this campaign from the block up,” said one senior adviser. “We’re knocking on doors every day and reaching voters who haven’t participated in years.”

Sliwa Holds Steady, Emphasizing Grassroots Appeal

Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels, has maintained his signature retail-politics approach, campaigning daily in subway stations and public spaces.

“The people will determine who the next mayor of the city of New York is through their votes,” Sliwa said this week. “Once they are tallied on the night of November 4, I will do what I’ve done every day in this campaign since February—go down into the subways and ride with the passengers.”

While his polling numbers remain in the low double digits, Sliwa’s voter base could play an outsized role if turnout among conservatives and independents spikes during the final days of early voting.

Analysts: A Volatile Final Stretch

Political analysts caution against drawing firm conclusions from a single poll, especially in a city as complex and unpredictable as New York.

“Polls can change in a second,” said Matthew Hale, an associate professor of political science at Seton Hall University. “I expect one or two more that might show it’s back to 20 or might show it’s down to five. It’s a pretty volatile race—but this is as close as Cuomo has gotten.”

Historical precedents support Hale’s point. In 2001, for example, then-Republican candidate Michael Bloomberg trailed Democrat Mark Green until the final week, when outgoing mayor Rudy Giuliani’s endorsement turned the tide. Cuomo’s team has referenced that race as evidence that a comeback is possible, though analysts caution the city’s electorate has changed dramatically since then.

A Fight to the Finish

With early voting continuing and Election Day fast approaching, all three candidates are preparing for a frenetic final stretch. Cuomo is expected to focus his remaining campaign stops on outer-borough neighborhoods and senior centers, while Mamdani plans to double down on grassroots mobilization among younger and working-class voters.

For his part, Sliwa continues to concentrate on visibility and direct engagement—his trademark approach.

What remains certain is that New York City is witnessing one of its most unpredictable mayoral races in recent memory. With turnout soaring, voter demographics shifting, and momentum fluctuating, the final outcome may hinge on who can best convert enthusiasm into votes before the polls close.

As Paleologos put it succinctly:

“This race isn’t just about who’s ahead—it’s about who’s still moving.”