Race Tightens for New York City Mayor as Independent Entrant Gains Ground
With just more than a week until Election Day on November 4 and early voting already underway, the mayoral race in New York City is entering its final sprint—and the dynamics are shifting. According to a recent poll by Suffolk University of likely general-election voters, the independent candidacy of former governor Andrew Cuomo has significantly closed the gap on Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani. The poll shows Mamdani at 44 % and Cuomo at 34 %, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa follows with 11 %, and about 7 % remain undecided.
In September, the same poll had put Mamdani ahead by roughly 20 points. Now, with Cuomo’s endorsement from sitting mayor Eric Adams and a surge in early voting—especially among older voters—the race is growing tighter.

What the numbers show
The Suffolk University poll surveyed 500 likely voters in New York City, with a margin of error of ±4.4 %. According to its results:

Mamdani (Democrat) ≈ 44 %

Cuomo (Independent) ≈ 34 %

Sliwa (Republican) ≈ 11 %

Undecided ≈ 7 %
Thus, Mamdani remains the clear frontrunner, but the lead has been cut in half from earlier surveys.
Meanwhile, the surge in early voting appears to be skewed toward older voters—a demographic that pollsters believe may favor Cuomo.

Early-voting surge and age-skewed turnout
More than 223,000 New Yorkers had already cast ballots during the first three days of early voting. According to analyses of the early return data, much of the turnout has been coming from voters over age 50—far outpacing younger voters, who formed a key bloc of Mamdani’s base during the Democratic primary.
Campaign observers for Cuomo argue that this shift could work in his favor, positing that older voters may gravitate toward his experience and name recognition. In contrast, Mamdani’s team is working to broaden its reach into the older demographic while retaining its energized younger-voter coalition.

What the candidates are saying
Cuomo’s campaign highlighted the tightening margins:

“In just a month, Andrew Cuomo has cut Mamdani’s lead in half, and the early vote is going our way.”
His spokesperson added:
“Momentum is on our side … the more New Yorkers learn about how inexperienced Zohran Mamdani is … the less they like what they see.”

Mamdani’s campaign acknowledges the early-voting surge and insists the high turnout is a good sign. He emphasised the importance of staying aggressive in outreach and not becoming complacent. Sliwa, for his part, continues to emphasise his grassroots style—riding the subways, speaking to everyday riders—and maintains that the race is not over for his camp.

Key questions as the race heads into its final week

Can Cuomo make up a 10-point gap in the remaining eight days of the race, when early votes are already being cast? Some analysts say the window is narrowing.

Will the surge in older-voter early turnout hold through Election Day, and how will that shift the composition of the final electorate?

How many undecided voters remain, and how might they break? With roughly 7% undecided in the poll, their choices could determine how wide or narrow the margin ends up.

What effect will Sliwa’s 11 % share have? Some pundits point out that Sliwa’s voters could swing the result—especially if many of them pick Cuomo as their second choice.

Broader context and significance
Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman who emerged from the Democratic primary with strong support among younger voters and progressive activists, remains the leading candidate. He has embraced themes of affordability, housing, and city services. Meanwhile, Cuomo—who lost the Democratic primary—entered the general election as an independent, giving the race an unusual dynamic: a Democrat (Mamdani) facing not simply a Republican opponent, but a prominent independent challenger.
The presence of Sliwa further complicates the picture, as the Republican nomination in New York City typically faces an uphill climb—but his 11 % share in the latest poll shows there is still a meaningful chunk of the electorate open to alternatives beyond the two major names.

Why the narrowing gap matters
A tightening lead means the race is less a foregone conclusion and more a contest of turnout, mobilization and late-breaking momentum. With early voting already underway, the traditional “get-out-the-vote” efforts and ground-game operations will be critical. For Mamdani, who built much of his campaign strength via younger voters and progressive mobilization, the challenge is to translate that into early ballots and ensure strong day-of-election turnout. For Cuomo, the message is clear: capture the older demographic, drive turnout among quieter voters, and narrow the margin.
Political scientists caution that polls are snapshots—voter preferences can change quickly, especially in a high-visibility race such as this. As one professor put it:

“Polls can change in a second … this is as close as he [Cuomo] has gotten.”
At the same time, closing the gap is not the same as overtaking—particularly at this juncture when many ballots are already being cast.

What to watch between now and Election Day

Daily updates on early-voting turnout by age and borough. A sustained surge among older voters may favor Cuomo; if younger turnout rebounds, it could solidify Mamdani’s edge.

Strategic messaging: how Cuomo frames the election (experience vs. change), and how Mamdani responds to the narrowing margin.

Whether any of the remaining undecided voters break late for one candidate or another—and how effectively each campaign targets them.

The impact of Sliwa’s supporters in the margin equation: if a significant share jump to one of the two leading candidates, it could influence the final result.

Campaign events, endorsements and news developments in the final week—any major shift could influence late voters.

Conclusion
The New York City mayoral race is no longer simply a double-digit lead for the Democratic nominee; it has evolved into a closing contest with an independent challenger making real gains. As early voting continues and turnout patterns become clearer, the final week promises to be intensive. While Zohran Mamdani remains ahead, Andrew Cuomo has significantly narrowed the gap—and the outcome may depend now as much on which campaign better moves voters to the polls. With both campaigns intensifying their efforts, the city is heading into a dramatic finish for the city’s top job.